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President Obama's “pivot to Asia” is largely rhetorical alongside the natural rise of China, but the risk is that the US will become ensnared in a military conflict by politically opportunistic allies, Australian historian Geoffrey Gunn told RT.

奥巴马总统的“重返亚洲”(政策)随着中国的自然崛起很大程度上更像是一种说辞,而风险在于,美国即将陷入政治机会主义盟友(挑起)的军事冲突,澳大利亚历史学家Geoffrey Gunn告诉《今日俄罗斯》


Andre Vltchek: After the visit of the President of the United States Barack Obama to Asia, what really did change, and what did the West achieve?

Andre Vltchek:巴拉克·奥巴马总统访问亚洲之后,发生了什么变化,西方又取得了什么成果?



GG: The question is; what was the United States doing, right during those elections, in Jakarta? What was it doing, inside those 300 rooms they have inside the embassy – the CIA, the Pentagon, the economists? There are huge interests at stake there, right now! What protagonist would fit best to their interests? Was Washington favoring old military elites dating back to Suharto, or an unknown populist? All we know is that Washington and Canberra revoked visa restrictions on Prabowo. They prepared for his Presidency, in case it would happen. We all know how closely he is lixed to the US, through Kopassus.

GG: 现在的问题是:在雅加达的这些选举中美国在干什么?在大使馆的300个房间里,美国中央情报局、五角大楼、经济学家们,他们都在做什么? 这里面存在着利害攸关的巨大利益!什么样的领导人最符合美国的利益?是华盛顿支持的可以追溯到苏哈托(时代)的旧军事精英们,还是一个默默无闻的平民主义者?我们所知道的是,华盛顿和堪培拉撤销了对普拉博沃(印尼政治及军事人物,原印尼陆军战略后备部队司令,曾于1998年涉嫌制造排华的黑色五月暴动事件。普拉博沃曾参加2009年印尼大选,是2014年印尼大选热门候选人)的签证限制。他们为他的上任做好了准备,当然前提是他赢得了大选。我们都知道他通过Kopassus(印尼特种部队)与美国紧密合作。
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AV: Shouldn’t China feel frustrated, given the situation? There is loud, vocal hostility towards it in US rhetoric, and especially if you are listening to the verbal attacks coming from Tokyo, or from Manila.

AV: 考虑到现状,阿玛尼吉利彩票时时彩开奖记录:中国不该感到沮丧吗? 美国方面对(中国)有不断的敌意言论,尤其是如果听到来自东京或马尼拉(对中国)的言语攻击。



AV: Is it really wise what both South-East Asian and North Asian countries are now doing? China is the most important economic partner for many of them. There is huge economic and trade potential, as well as cultural lixs. Why are these countries really following Washington and its anti-Chinese policies?

AV:东南亚和北亚国家现在在做的事情真的是明智的么?对他们中的大多数来说中国是最重要的经济伙伴。有巨大的经济和贸易潜力也有文化上的联系。为什么这些国家事实上在跟随华盛顿及其反华政策?

GG: We can see that China has overtaken Japan in GDP, with the sheer size of its economy. We can see that China is spending more on its military capability. Yet, this would be the responsibility of any rising power. So we are at a junction in history, when a new power is challenging the hegemony of a traditional power, namely Washington, and Japan is feeling the squeeze. But it is not responding in a way that would resonate with its 70 years post-war pacifist constitution. It is in fact ripping up its pacifist constitution! It is becoming a so-called ‘normal country’, which is the word for a re-armed and militarist Japan, and that itself is a destabilizing factor.

GG:我们看到,中国这个庞大的经济体在GDP(规模)上已经超越日本。我们可以看到,中国在(提高)军事能力上投入更多。然而,这是任何崛起大国的责任。所以我们正处于一个历史的交接点,当一股新力量正挑战传统的霸权势力,也即华盛顿(霸权),日本也感受到了挤压。但(日本)它不是以战后(实施了)70年的和平宪法形成共识的方式进行回应,(而是)它实际上正在撕毁和平宪法!它正在成为一个所谓的“正常国家”,这是在重新武装军国主义日本,它本身就是一个不稳定因素。
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AV: Why is Japan betting on the US/West, not on China/Asia? You began by saying that it "always did".

AV:为什么日本押注美国/西方,而不是在中国/亚洲呢?你之前说日本一直都是这么做的。


AV: Is there a danger that the US policy in Asia could trigger an arms race and possibly lead to a military conflict, even WWIII?

AV:美国的亚洲政策可能引发军备竞赛,并有可能引发军事冲突,甚至是第三次世界大战吗?

GG: President Obama's “pivot to Asia” in itself is largely rhetorical alongside the natural rise of China, but the risk is that the US will become ensnared into a military conflict by politically opportunistic allies. This is already happening in US backing for Japan's claims over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.

GG:在中国自然崛起的背景下,奥巴马“重返亚洲”(政策)很大程度上更像是一种夸张的说辞,而风险在于,美国有可能因为政治机会主义盟友的引诱而陷入军事冲突。随着美国支持日本在有争议的尖阁列岛/钓鱼岛的主张,这种风险正在发生。

The US is also backing the Abe government's position on “collective self-defense,” and has no obxtion to Japan selling weapons. For a country with a dangerous militarist past, any revision of the status quo surrounding Japan's “pacifist” constitution is cause for alarm. The US should be taking the side of the Japanese people – a majority who reject Abe's attempts to revise the constitution – rather than leading this nation into even more dangerous waters.

美国还支持安倍政府 “集体自卫权”的立场,并没有反对日本??出售武器。对于一个过去危险的军国主义国家,任何围绕日本“和平”宪法现状的修订都会引起恐慌。美国应该站在日本人民的一边--大多数(日本人)反对安倍晋三企图修改宪法-- 而不是领导这个国家进入更危险的境地。
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AV: Where do we go from here? Anti-Chinese Western propaganda is reaching a crescendo. There have even been several military skirmishes, recently. What would be the most logical way forward, for East Asia, in order to avoid military confrontation?

AV:我们该何去何从?西方的反华宣传正达到高潮。最近,甚至还有一些小规模军事冲突。为避免军事对抗,东亚地区将来最合理的(处理)方式是什么?

GG: The international big media notes the "China threat," yet who is the provocateur? We observe the Japanese Prime Minister in Singapore (May 30 2014) offering to lead an international coalition to check Chinese aggression, offering 'quality' Japanese naval vessels to obliging clients, as with the Philippines and Vietnam. This is madness coming from a nation without official contrition, seeking as well to unpick its "peace constitution." In the meantime, the neo-con government in Australia overreaches with matching rhetoric, together snaring the US Defense Secretary to offer his own "pivot"to the South China Sea. My spin is to let Asian nationalisms (China, Vietnam, Japan, Korea) resolve their own problems diplomatically - after all the central kingdom has been in place for several millennia - outsiders keep out, militarists watch your step, and China rise peacefully.

GG:国际大牌媒体写出“中国威胁”(论调),但谁是煽动者?我们注意到日本首相在新加坡(2014年5月30日)出面主导(形成)一个国际联盟以应对中国的侵略,为盟友如菲律宾和越南提供“优质”的日本海军舰艇。寻求拆解“和平宪法”,同样是这个没有正式悔罪国家的疯狂之举。在此期间,澳大利亚新保守主义政府步调一致地过度解读,同时诱导美国国防部长把关注重心移向南中国海。我的观点不同,(应该是)让亚洲的民族主义国家(中国、越南、日本和韩国)从外交途径解决他们自己的问题--局外人不插手、军国主义止步、中国和平崛起--毕竟,中国已经存在了几千年。
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作者:

Andre Vltchek is a novelist, filmmaker and investigative journalist. He has covered wars and conflicts in dozens of countries.

Geoffrey Gun is Professor Emeritus at Nagasaki University in Japan, and is a leading Australian historian, living in Japan and Macau. His latest book is called Rice Wars in Colonial Vietnam: The Great Famine and the Viet Minh Road to Power (Rowman & Littlefield).
The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.

Andre Vltchek是一名小说家、电影制片人和调查记者。他报道的范围涵盖了几十个(爆发)战争和冲突的国家。
Geoffrey Gun是日本长崎大学的名誉教授,也是澳大利亚著名历史学家,在日本和澳门居住。他的最新著作是《殖民地越南的大米战争:大饥荒和越盟的权力之路)(Rowman & Littlefield出版社) (越盟:胡志明领导的,起初与日本后来与法国进行争取民族独立斗争(1941到1954年)的越南人组织)。
本专栏表达的看法和意见仅代表作者观点,不一定代表《今日俄罗斯》(的立场)。